The September U.S. payrolls report, due Friday, is the main event for foreign-exchange and bond markets in the week beginning September 28. Investors will use it to assess whether the economy can withstand a second consecutive Federal Reserve rate increase after the quarter-point move in September.
Money markets recently assigned a 64% probability to another increase on October 28. That percentage is market pricing rather than a policy commitment. Strong private-sector activity surveys and robust August employment have kept a hike in play, while the next inflation report is not due until October 14.
The labor picture will develop through the week: August job openings arrive Tuesday, September private payrolls Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims Thursday. August personal-consumption-expenditure inflation, the Fed’s preferred price measure, is also due Wednesday alongside the final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product.
Canada releases July gross domestic product after retail sales fell a larger-than-expected 1.1% that month. Markets price more than four Bank of Canada increases over the next year, especially if energy remains expensive, but that path is conditional on incoming activity and inflation data.
Euro-area inflation readings begin with Spain on Tuesday, continue with France, Italy and Germany on Wednesday, and culminate with the regional figure Friday. Investors are watching for second-round effects from energy costs; money markets price as many as four further quarter-point European Central Bank increases over a year.
In Britain, revised second-quarter growth, manufacturing data and political signals before the October 28 budget will shape expectations for a possible November Bank of England increase. Fiscal unease could add pressure to government-bond yields even before any monetary decision.
Japan’s Tankan business survey and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions follow its September increase to 1.25%. Government-bond yields have reached multiyear highs, while renewed yen weakness has revived intervention discussion, making official communication as important as scheduled data.
China’s purchasing-manager gauges, Australia’s expected fourth rate rise of 2026 and South Korean trade and inflation figures complete a globally dense calendar. The common risk is that energy costs and resilient demand sustain inflation, but every rate probability and forecast remains conditional rather than a predetermined outcome.
